Win Probability Tables

SP+ is Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted efficiency rating (via CFBD); this site's own MPR is its predictive model. These tables price games with whichever you pick — each rating prices the same games with the same math (Φ(margin / 17), HFA 2.5, FCS at −35). Three FBS-only views per conference: game by game (each game priced by the model, cells shaded red → yellow → green by win probability), win total (the projected final win-total distribution), and remaining (same, but played games locked to their real result, so a team's existing wins are guaranteed). The last column is each row's expected win total, shaded like the game cells.