Conference Championship Games

Pick a conference to see who reaches its title game — then replay the rest of the regular season yourself and watch the race recompute.

Monte Carlo odds of reaching and winning each conference title game, and an interactive picker: choose winners for the games left on the schedule and see the tiebroken conference standings plus the combined win probability of that scenario. Switch the MPR chip between SP+ and the MPR — the predictive points rating the sim is priced off. Played games are locked to their real result.

MPR

Odds below are Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated replays of the rest of the season, with games already played locked to their real result. Pick the rating model with the MPR chip (SP+ or the MPR). CCG = conference championship game. "Play" is the chance a team reaches that game, "Win" the chance it wins it.

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Pick winners to see the standings.
Tiebreakers that use a computer/analytic rating resolve on the selected model (SP+ or the MPR — see the chip above). For conferences whose procedure includes the CFP-ranked final-week clause (American, C-USA, Sun Belt), MPR order stands in for the committee ranking. No CFP rankings are stored.
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The winner of most of these games takes an autobid to the 12-team field — see the CFP Odds for whether it gets there.

Berth/win odds from 10k-season Monte Carlo simulations per conference, priced off MPR ratings (SP+ for the SP+ chip); tiebreakers ported from cfbseedR. Win probs = Φ(rating margin / 17).