Matchup Maker

The MPR line is the site's own model: margin = MPR_A − MPR_B + hfa (hfa 2.5 at home, 0 neutral) — the difference of the two MPRs, the same number the board and the pick cells print. Deliberately NOT the offense/defense matchup projection (/methodology#od): that decomposition is rescaled for display (P90|off+def| → 12 pts), so its sum is a shrunk copy of the rating (sd ~7.0 against 9.2) and it would print a smaller line than the MPR it claims to be. Both lines are read as win prob = Φ(margin / 17), the pinned pregame margin error. The SP+ line is SP+_A + hfa − SP+_B. Unit rows and preview stats come from play-by-play — everything is 2021+.