Rankings

Every FBS team, ordered by MPR — the predictive rating — with the schedule-adjusted Resume, offense, defense, strength of schedule and simulated CFP odds in the same row. The board is rebuilt every week of the season from each team's own game results.

What these numbers mean

MPR — McClintock Power Rating: the board number, and the order the board is sorted by. It is the predictive rating (formerly labelled "Power") in points — what a team projects to be — solved from the margin model's predicted spreads; every projection, margin and simulation here is built from it. It is shown beside Resume rather than blended with it, and the price of leading with the model's own read over the ~55-system Massey consensus (0.92–0.96 rank agreement at season's end, against 0.96–0.98 for a board sorted by Resume alone) is stated on the methodology page.
Resume — a schedule-adjusted grade of how a team has actually played this season, in points/game vs a top-10 baseline.
SOS — strength of schedule: the mean MPR of the opponents a team has faced so far, and its rank within FBS (1 = hardest). An FCS opponent counts at the model's FCS baseline.
Luck — wins above expected: every completed game is replayed from its own box score, which gives it a win expectancy, and Luck is the sum of (actual result − that expectancy) in wins. Near zero for an average team, and it says nothing about how good a team is — it is how far the record ran ahead of the plays. 2021 on (the replay needs play-by-play).
SP+ — Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, shown for reference. The board carries it only before 2016, where it is the one number those seasons have; the CFP chip offers it any time.
Make CFP / Win CFP — 10k-season Monte Carlo odds (CFP Odds), SP+ or this site's MPR, switched with the chip above. Rk is the rank within FBS for the season.
The MPR shrinks toward a preseason prior — 70% last season's final rating, 30% roster talent — weighted 100/75/50/25/0% across a team's 1st–4th game, so it is gone from the 5th game on; separately, a stat anchor pulls each adjusted stat toward last season's value and never expires. Historical ratings are a reconstruction by the current model, not point-in-time predictions.

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CFP odds

Through week 7 · sorted by MPR (McClintock Power Rating) · 138 teams · data through 2026-10-18

#	Team	Record	Conf	MPR	Rk	Resume	Rk	Off	Def	SOS	Rk	Luck	Make CFP	Win CFP
1	LSU	5-2	SEC	27.1	1	16.1	4	5.4	10.4	1.7	24	-1.02	97.6%	20.7%
2	Notre DameND	6-1	Ind.	27.1	1	17.2	2	8.6	8.2	2.9	17	+0.22	99.7%	21.7%
3	Ohio StateOSU	6-1	Big Ten	24.6	3	16.8	3	7.3	6.5	3.8	11	-0.12	97.7%	15.2%
4	BYU	6-0	Big 12	23.7	4	10.4	11	7.2	6.9	0.9	30	+0.25	79.3%	7.3%
5	GeorgiaUGA	6-1	SEC	23.7	4	12.1	10	8.9	6.6	-3.0	57	-0.16	78.4%	7.6%
6	IndianaIU	6-1	Big Ten	23.2	6	12.8	8	6.0	8.4	-0.2	37	-0.10	77.5%	7.0%
7	AlabamaALA	5-2	SEC	21.5	7	19.2	1	7.1	5.8	9.3	2	-0.50	94.4%	7.8%
8	MiamiMIA	6-0	ACC	20.4	8	12.9	6	8.3	4.9	-6.1	83	+0.27	82.8%	4.0%
9	TexasTEX	4-2	SEC	20.1	9	12.9	6	3.1	7.8	9.7	1	-0.85	75.4%	4.0%
10	HoustonHOU	6-1	Big 12	18.3	10	9.3	15	7.4	2.4	1.1	28	-0.04	34.2%	0.9%
11	USC	6-1	Big Ten	17.2	11	5.0	26	6.5	2.8	1.5	25	+0.29	14.3%	0.4%
12	OregonORE	4-2	Big Ten	16.9	12	7.0	20	3.5	5.9	4.1	9	+0.53	17.3%	0.3%
13	Wake ForestWAKE	6-1	ACC	16.8	13	9.7	13	6.1	5.9	-0.1	36	+0.59	29.8%	0.5%
14	UCLA	6-0	Big Ten	16.2	14	12.4	9	3.4	5.2	1.7	22	+0.37	48.9%	0.8%
15	Ole MissMISS	5-1	SEC	15.4	15	13.5	5	7.4	2.3	6.7	6	+0.97	34.9%	0.7%
16	LouisvilleLOU	4-3	ACC	15.3	16	7.4	19	6.6	3.0	3.6	12	-1.80	6.6%	0.1%
17	UtahUTAH	6-0	Big 12	14.8	17	9.0	17	5.9	2.4	-7.3	93	+0.97	22.6%	0.3%
18	Texas TechTTU	6-0	Big 12	14.0	18	9.3	15	3.0	4.8	-4.1	70	+0.93	29.7%	0.3%
19	SMU	5-1	ACC	13.7	19	0.1	44	4.6	3.4	-4.2	72	+0.33	12.2%	0.1%
20	NebraskaNEB	5-2	Big Ten	13.6	20	9.4	14	3.7	4.1	-1.1	42	-1.00	17.8%	0.1%
21	TennesseeTENN	6-1	SEC	12.6	21	9.9	12	2.6	5.8	-0.4	40	+0.55	16.2%	0.1%
22	IowaIOWA	5-1	Big Ten	12.5	22	3.7	33	4.4	4.3	-3.6	64	+1.30	3.1%	0.0%
23	TCU	3-3	Big 12	11.9	23	4.1	30	0.6	5.3	1.2	26	-0.47	1.8%	0.0%
24	MissouriMIZ	5-2	SEC	11.6	24	5.1	25	2.4	5.6	-0.3	38	-0.09	2.0%	0.0%
25	ArizonaARIZ	5-1	Big 12	10.4	25	3.0	34	2.9	3.8	-7.8	97	+0.01	3.1%	0.0%
26	North CarolinaUNC	4-2	ACC	10.0	26	4.0	31	3.1	2.7	3.8	10	+0.55	1.8%	0.0%
27	WisconsinWIS	4-2	Big Ten	10.0	26	4.6	28	1.9	4.1	1.9	20	-0.26	2.1%	<0.1%
28	Penn StatePSU	3-4	Big Ten	9.8	28	0.1	44	1.7	3.4	0.4	34	-0.19	0.0%	0.0%
29	NorthwesternNU	5-1	Big Ten	9.7	29	7.9	18	4.7	0.4	-1.7	49	+0.44	5.2%	<0.1%
30	PittsburghPITT	5-2	ACC	9.2	30	4.0	31	2.4	3.7	-1.6	48	+0.24	0.4%	0.0%
31	FloridaFLA	5-2	SEC	8.8	31	5.9	22	4.8	1.1	3.4	14	+0.94	2.1%	0.0%
32	James MadisonJMU	7-0	Sun Belt	8.7	32	5.2	24	2.3	1.7	-9.8	110	+0.75	46.0%	0.1%
33	KentuckyUK	6-1	SEC	8.5	33	5.6	23	4.0	1.7	3.3	16	+1.58	5.9%	0.0%
34	MichiganMICH	4-2	Big Ten	8.2	34	0.3	42	1.4	3.7	0.6	31	-0.74	0.3%	0.0%
35	Mississippi StateMSST	4-2	SEC	8.1	35	2.3	35	5.5	0.6	6.7	5	+0.24	0.5%	0.0%
36	Kansas StateKSU	4-2	Big 12	7.9	36	-0.8	47	3.8	0.8	-4.0	69	-0.11	0.1%	0.0%
37	AuburnAUB	4-2	SEC	7.8	37	6.0	21	2.4	4.3	6.3	7	+0.38	0.5%	0.0%
38	North TexasUNT	4-2	American Athletic	7.8	37	-1.4	49	7.0	-3.4	-6.0	82	+0.39	5.4%	0.0%
39	Oklahoma StateOKST	4-2	Big 12	7.8	37	4.9	27	2.8	1.6	0.4	33	-0.18	1.4%	0.0%
40	BaylorBAY	4-2	Big 12	7.6	40	4.6	28	2.0	3.7	-2.4	53	-0.13	0.9%	0.0%
41	New MexicoUNM	5-1	Mountain West	7.4	41	-1.5	50	-0.3	3.5	-16.8	136	+0.13	4.0%	0.0%
42	Virginia TechVT	5-2	ACC	7.3	42	-2.2	53	3.0	2.4	-7.7	96	-0.56	0.1%	0.0%
43	UCF	3-3	Big 12	7.2	43	1.3	39	-0.3	4.0	1.7	22	+0.01	0.1%	0.0%
44	Florida StateFSU	3-4	ACC	7.0	44	0.9	41	4.6	0.7	3.5	13	-0.28	0.0%	0.0%
45	Texas A&MTA&M	4-3	SEC	7.0	44	1.2	40	1.3	2.7	-1.1	43	+0.41	0.1%	0.0%
46	OklahomaOU	3-3	SEC	6.8	46	1.8	37	-0.5	5.4	7.8	3	+0.73	0.5%	0.0%
47	NC StateNCSU	3-3	ACC	6.7	47	-7.5	76	3.3	-0.3	-1.3	45	+0.75	0.0%	0.0%
48	Oregon StateORST	5-2	Pac-12	6.0	48	2.2	36	3.1	-0.4	-7.9	98	-0.04	23.8%	<0.1%
49	ClemsonCLEM	4-2	ACC	5.7	49	-2.1	52	-2.4	4.8	1.9	19	+0.30	0.7%	0.0%
50	South CarolinaSC	3-3	SEC	5.6	50	0.2	43	2.4	1.6	-0.9	41	-0.75	0.1%	0.0%
51	Texas StateTXST	3-3	Pac-12	5.4	51	-3.1	58	4.3	-1.5	-4.2	73	-1.02	2.5%	0.0%
52	LibertyLIB	5-1	C-USA	5.1	52	-4.1	61	0.6	1.0	-13.0	129	-0.10	0.5%	0.0%
53	KansasKU	2-4	Big 12	4.5	53	-7.1	73	0.8	3.8	-3.8	65	-0.57	0.0%	0.0%
54	UConnCONN	3-3	Ind.	4.4	54	-5.3	67	1.9	0.5	-8.5	102	-0.43	0.0%	0.0%
55	Michigan StateMSU	2-5	Big Ten	4.3	55	-3.7	59	0.9	1.5	7.4	4	-1.16	0.0%	0.0%
56	Boise StateBOIS	5-1	Pac-12	4.2	56	1.6	38	1.9	-0.8	-5.2	77	+0.79	15.7%	<0.1%
57	VirginiaUVA	4-3	ACC	4.1	57	-2.2	53	0.4	1.8	-3.1	62	-0.11	0.1%	0.0%
58	CincinnatiCIN	4-2	Big 12	3.5	58	-2.6	55	3.8	-1.9	-3.1	61	+0.03	0.0%	0.0%
59	DukeDUKE	4-2	ACC	3.5	58	-0.3	46	1.3	2.1	-7.2	92	-0.80	0.0%	0.0%
60	LouisianaUL	5-2	Sun Belt	3.3	60	-4.4	63	-0.8	1.8	-9.5	108	-0.16	0.1%	0.0%
61	WashingtonWASH	4-3	Big Ten	3.1	61	-5.1	65	0.6	0.8	-4.0	68	+0.03	0.0%	0.0%
62	Miami (OH)M-OH	4-3	Mid-American	3.0	62	-10.9	92	1.6	0.1	-9.5	109	-1.06	0.0%	0.0%
63	ToledoTOL	5-2	Mid-American	3.0	62	-6.9	71	0.0	0.9	-12.4	128	+0.36	0.0%	0.0%
64	MemphisMEM	5-2	American Athletic	2.2	64	-6.3	69	1.6	-1.7	-11.0	122	-0.11	0.3%	0.0%
65	Iowa StateISU	3-3	Big 12	2.1	65	-1.5	50	0.5	1.2	-0.4	39	+0.17	0.0%	0.0%
66	South FloridaUSF	5-2	American Athletic	1.9	66	-7.0	72	-0.5	-0.4	-12.4	127	-0.26	0.0%	0.0%
67	Louisiana TechLT	4-2	Sun Belt	1.5	67	-4.3	62	-0.1	1.0	-3.6	63	+0.43	0.1%	0.0%
68	MarylandMD	2-5	Big Ten	1.2	68	-8.0	79	-0.3	1.3	3.4	15	-0.23	0.0%	0.0%
69	ArmyARMY	4-2	American Athletic	0.7	69	-0.9	48	2.0	-3.4	-7.2	89	+0.78	1.4%	0.0%
70	North Dakota StateNDSU	6-1	Mountain West	0.3	70	-2.6	55	-3.9	2.2	-14.6	134	+0.58	0.0%	0.0%
71	ColoradoCOLO	2-4	Big 12	0.2	71	-9.2	84	-1.2	2.2	1.2	27	-0.77	0.0%	0.0%
72	IllinoisILL	3-3	Big Ten	0.2	71	-4.0	60	3.3	-2.4	-2.3	51	+0.50	0.0%	0.0%
73	PurduePUR	3-4	Big Ten	0.2	71	-2.6	55	3.0	-2.2	4.1	8	-0.09	0.0%	0.0%
74	UTSA	6-1	American Athletic	0.1	74	-5.2	66	-0.7	-0.3	-5.7	79	+1.65	0.3%	0.0%
75	SyracuseSYR	2-4	ACC	0.0	75	-4.8	64	-0.3	1.7	-2.1	50	-0.62	0.0%	0.0%
76	East CarolinaECU	3-3	American Athletic	-0.1	76	-14.0	102	-1.7	1.3	-9.8	111	+0.25	0.0%	0.0%
77	MinnesotaMINN	4-2	Big Ten	-0.1	76	-7.5	76	-0.8	0.9	-5.9	81	+0.30	0.0%	0.0%
78	Georgia SouthernGASO	3-4	Sun Belt	-0.5	78	-8.4	80	-0.4	-0.5	-4.4	74	-1.14	0.0%	0.0%
79	OhioOHIO	5-2	Mid-American	-0.8	79	-11.4	94	0.2	-1.1	-13.9	132	+0.55	0.0%	0.0%
80	Fresno StateFRES	4-3	Pac-12	-1.0	80	-7.3	74	-1.0	-0.4	-7.5	94	-0.69	0.0%	0.0%
81	West VirginiaWVU	4-3	Big 12	-1.0	80	-6.7	70	2.2	-2.9	-2.8	56	+0.42	0.0%	0.0%
82	Arizona StateASU	3-3	Big 12	-1.5	82	-12.8	99	1.4	-1.6	-3.1	60	-0.02	0.0%	0.0%
83	VanderbiltVAN	3-4	SEC	-1.7	83	-12.0	98	-0.3	0.2	-0.0	35	-0.34	0.0%	0.0%
84	Florida AtlanticFAU	4-2	American Athletic	-1.8	84	-13.0	100	1.5	-3.6	-11.0	121	-0.14	0.0%	0.0%
85	Air ForceAF	5-1	Mountain West	-2.5	85	-8.5	81	0.5	-3.5	-14.0	133	+0.29	0.0%	0.0%
86	Georgia StateGAST	4-2	Sun Belt	-2.5	85	-5.5	68	2.3	-4.1	-10.3	115	+0.07	0.0%	0.0%
87	TulaneTULN	3-3	American Athletic	-2.8	87	-7.4	75	-3.4	0.9	-1.5	47	+0.94	0.0%	0.0%
88	Boston CollegeBC	3-3	ACC	-4.1	88	-10.7	90	-3.5	1.9	-1.4	46	-0.04	0.0%	0.0%
89	TulsaTLSA	4-3	American Athletic	-4.1	88	-7.6	78	-3.6	-0.3	-8.5	103	+0.47	0.0%	0.0%
90	Georgia TechGT	2-4	ACC	-4.2	90	-10.4	88	1.6	-2.3	-3.8	66	-0.45	0.0%	0.0%
91	Western MichiganWMU	5-2	Mid-American	-4.5	91	-10.2	86	-2.6	-1.3	-13.2	130	+0.37	0.0%	0.0%
92	UNLV	4-3	Mountain West	-4.7	92	-9.6	85	-2.8	-1.2	-5.7	80	+0.09	0.0%	0.0%
93	NavyNAVY	2-4	American Athletic	-5.2	93	-11.8	97	-0.7	-2.5	-9.1	105	-1.76	0.0%	0.0%
94	Jacksonville StateJXST	5-2	C-USA	-5.6	94	-10.8	91	-0.3	-3.9	-10.7	118	+0.60	0.0%	0.0%
95	ArkansasARK	3-4	SEC	-5.8	95	-9.0	83	0.3	-2.7	2.5	18	+0.15	0.0%	0.0%
96	Arkansas StateARST	3-4	Sun Belt	-6.5	96	-11.7	96	-0.3	-3.7	-6.9	86	-0.66	0.0%	0.0%
97	TempleTEM	2-5	American Athletic	-7.2	97	-14.0	102	0.3	-3.7	-5.1	76	-1.82	0.0%	0.0%
98	San Diego StateSDSU	3-4	Pac-12	-7.4	98	-11.3	93	-3.7	-1.0	0.5	32	+0.32	0.0%	0.0%
99	App StateAPP	4-2	Sun Belt	-7.7	99	-10.6	89	-2.8	-1.5	-12.0	124	+0.74	0.0%	0.0%
100	Kennesaw StateKENN	1-5	C-USA	-7.8	100	-16.0	111	-3.7	-1.2	-8.3	101	-1.10	0.0%	0.0%
101	RutgersRUTG	2-4	Big Ten	-7.8	100	-10.2	86	0.8	-4.7	-1.3	44	-0.22	0.0%	0.0%
102	Florida InternationalFIU	3-3	C-USA	-10.1	102	-13.0	100	-6.2	0.0	-12.2	126	-0.25	0.0%	0.0%
103	Utah StateUSU	2-4	Pac-12	-10.1	102	-19.5	122	-5.6	0.6	-6.1	84	-0.08	0.0%	0.0%
104	Old DominionODU	2-5	Sun Belt	-10.3	104	-19.3	118	-7.0	1.5	-4.2	71	-0.52	0.0%	0.0%
105	South AlabamaUSA	4-2	Sun Belt	-10.3	104	-11.5	95	0.0	-6.5	-10.3	114	+1.11	0.0%	0.0%
106	MassachusettsMASS	4-3	Mid-American	-10.6	106	-15.4	106	-3.9	-2.4	-18.0	138	-0.31	0.0%	0.0%
107	CaliforniaCAL	3-4	ACC	-10.8	107	-8.7	82	-1.9	-3.9	1.0	29	+1.20	0.0%	0.0%
108	TroyTROY	3-3	Sun Belt	-11.1	108	-15.7	109	-3.0	-3.1	-9.3	107	+0.04	0.0%	0.0%
109	Colorado StateCSU	2-4	Pac-12	-11.4	109	-15.4	106	1.1	-8.7	-2.7	55	-0.01	0.0%	0.0%
110	UAB	4-3	American Athletic	-11.5	110	-15.5	108	-4.4	-2.6	-8.5	104	+0.90	0.0%	0.0%
111	Eastern MichiganEMU	4-4	Mid-American	-11.7	111	-18.6	116	-3.8	-3.8	-10.7	119	+0.83	0.0%	0.0%
112	StanfordSTAN	3-4	ACC	-12.0	112	-15.1	104	-2.6	-3.2	1.7	21	+0.43	0.0%	0.0%
113	Coastal CarolinaCCU	2-5	Sun Belt	-12.7	113	-15.8	110	-2.9	-4.3	-10.0	112	-0.60	0.0%	0.0%
114	Ball StateBALL	2-5	Mid-American	-13.0	114	-21.2	128	-3.5	-4.6	-4.0	67	-0.28	0.0%	0.0%
115	Missouri StateMOST	2-4	C-USA	-13.0	114	-19.3	118	-5.1	-2.8	-9.1	106	-0.33	0.0%	0.0%
116	Southern MissUSM	1-5	Sun Belt	-13.1	116	-21.7	129	-4.1	-3.1	-7.1	88	-0.92	0.0%	0.0%
117	Sam HoustonSHSU	1-5	C-USA	-13.2	117	-20.5	126	-5.7	-3.2	-7.6	95	-1.17	0.0%	0.0%
118	Washington StateWSU	1-6	Pac-12	-13.2	117	-15.3	105	-5.8	-1.3	-2.6	54	-0.21	0.0%	0.0%
119	DelawareDEL	2-4	C-USA	-13.3	119	-18.6	116	-5.2	-2.3	-10.2	113	-0.31	0.0%	0.0%
120	San José StateSJSU	4-3	Mountain West	-13.6	120	-17.4	113	-5.8	-2.3	-12.1	125	-0.20	0.0%	0.0%
121	NevadaNEV	2-4	Mountain West	-14.7	121	-19.9	123	-4.7	-3.7	-15.7	135	-0.76	0.0%	0.0%
122	Western KentuckyWKU	3-4	C-USA	-14.8	122	-16.4	112	-5.8	-3.9	-6.3	85	+0.12	0.0%	0.0%
123	New Mexico StateNMSU	2-4	C-USA	-15.7	123	-18.2	115	-4.6	-4.2	-10.3	116	-0.45	0.0%	0.0%
124	RiceRICE	1-6	American Athletic	-16.2	124	-17.5	114	-6.2	-3.9	-2.4	52	-0.25	0.0%	0.0%
125	Hawai'iHAW	1-6	Mountain West	-16.8	125	-23.7	130	-4.9	-4.6	-8.1	100	-0.33	0.0%	0.0%
126	WyomingWYO	4-3	Mountain West	-16.8	125	-24.7	132	-5.4	-4.3	-17.2	137	+0.57	0.0%	0.0%
127	BuffaloBUF	4-3	Mid-American	-17.1	127	-20.3	125	-6.5	-3.6	-11.7	123	-0.05	0.0%	0.0%
128	Kent StateKENT	2-5	Mid-American	-17.7	128	-20.8	127	-7.6	-3.0	-3.0	57	-0.19	0.0%	0.0%
129	Bowling GreenBGSU	2-5	Mid-American	-17.8	129	-19.3	118	-6.2	-4.8	-7.2	90	+0.59	0.0%	0.0%
130	MarshallMRSH	3-3	Sun Belt	-18.1	130	-24.2	131	-3.9	-6.3	-10.5	117	+0.31	0.0%	0.0%
131	Central MichiganCMU	3-4	Mid-American	-19.3	131	-19.4	121	-7.4	-4.5	-7.0	87	+0.06	0.0%	0.0%
132	AkronAKR	1-6	Mid-American	-20.4	132	-25.8	134	-5.7	-5.9	-7.2	91	-0.81	0.0%	0.0%
133	CharlotteCLT	1-6	American Athletic	-21.2	133	-25.2	133	-7.1	-4.9	-3.0	59	+0.67	0.0%	0.0%
134	Middle TennesseeMTSU	3-3	C-USA	-21.2	133	-20.2	124	-5.8	-5.9	-13.6	131	+0.34	0.0%	0.0%
135	UTEP	1-6	Mountain West	-21.2	133	-26.3	135	-6.3	-6.4	-4.9	75	-0.03	0.0%	0.0%
136	Sacramento StateSAC	1-6	Mid-American	-23.5	136	-32.7	138	-8.0	-5.6	-10.9	120	-0.08	0.0%	0.0%
137	Northern IllinoisNIU	0-6	Mountain West	-25.0	137	-30.5	136	-8.0	-6.0	-5.6	78	-0.02	0.0%	0.0%
138	UL MonroeULM	0-6	Sun Belt	-25.4	138	-32.0	137	-7.8	-6.2	-8.1	99	-0.05	0.0%	0.0%

Click any column header to sort by it (click again to flip). The "Sort by" control sets the initial order. Make CFP / Win CFP come from the 10k-season MPR simulation on the CFP Odds page.